How the race for Champions League football is shaping up

With just 3 games remaining in the premier league the race to secure champions league football is extremely close.Chelsea, Leicester and Man United are all fighting for two places in the top 4. Man City’s ban had provided hope that all of these teams would qualify for the Champions League, but with the recent news of their rescinded, the fight is on.

Chelsea have Liverpool and Wolves still to come, and are just four points ahead of both United and Leicester, with a game more played. Despite Chelsea narrowly beating Norwich on Tuesday evening, Liverpool and Wolves look to be tougher opponents. It is difficult to see Chelsea taking maximum points with their shaky form in the last four games, having won 2 and lost 2, conceding 8 goals in the process. The woeful form of Kepa between the sticks, as well as the centre halves of Christensen and Zouma not looking entirely confident themselves are undeniably partly at fault for this. There is clear defensive fragility in the squad, but the attack still looks to be firing on all cylinders, with Christian Pulisic and Willian in particular being on top of their games having scored a combined total of 7 goals since the restart. Moreover, the Man United v Leicester game on the final day guarantees that one of their rivals will have to drop points. Therefore, Chelsea should be fairly confident about their chances of gaining a top four spot. 

Leicester’s remaining fixtures compile of Sheffield United, Spurs and Man United. Which is clearly the toughest fixture list of the three. Their form is not great either, with just 1 win and 3 draws since lockdown scoring just 7 goals in those 6 games. Jamie Vardy, their talismanic striker seems to have regained some form which will give Leicester hope, but the shocking performance against Bournemouth, after having dominated the first half, is still a cause for worry. The red card of Soyuncu is also an issue, as he is pivotal to their defensive solidity. All season, Leicester had looked certain for a top 4 position, having been 8 points clear of Chelsea in January, nevertheless now they are one point behind, and in danger of slipping further back. Sheffield United have bounced back after a disappointing restart, as have Spurs, meaning that they will both be challenging games. It is highly likely that the game against United on the final day will be make or break. But unfortunately for the foxes the two form guides are completely contrasting, and that is not in Leicester’s favour. The one thing that may save them is their superior goal difference, which is over double Chelsea’s and 3 ahead of United’s. They will have to hope that Vardy regains the touch that led him to be in contention for the golden boot, but even then, it may be struggle to make Champions league football this season.

Man United will play Crystal Palace, West Ham and Leicester, unquestionably the easiest fixture list out of the three contenders. Their form has gone through the roof since the arrival of Bruno Fernandes, a run of 18 games unbeaten, and since the lockdown, they have won 5 and drawn 2 of their 7 games. Bruno has been an impressive catalyst to a team that was 14 points behind Leicester earlier in the campaign, winning 6 out of the 7 Man of the Match awards, and providing 5 goals and 3 assists. This in turn has caused him to give a boost to the rest of the team, with the team winning in every game in which he has scored. Additionaly we are now seeing the quality of Pogba and Martial that justifies their hefty price tags. To add to this optimism, Crystal Palace now have little to play for, and West Ham may be safe from relegation by the time that United play them, meaning that those games should be far easier. The game against Leicester will be tough, but Utd could cause it to be irrelevant with two wins in their next two games. However, Southampton’s last minute winner capped a performance where they were not as dominant as previous fixtures. A possible cause for concern? Having said that, their fixture list and form mean that they are probably the favourites for a top four spot.

The scenarios are fairly simple, should Chelsea win both of their fixtures, they will be in the champions league, and whoever gets more points out of United and Leicester join them. Should either of United and Leicester win all three, due to them playing each other, they will be through as will Chelsea if they win one out of their remaining two. As for if there are other losses, Chelsea just need to match the results of the team with the lowest points to go through, and United or Leicester may have to get an extra point due to their similar goal differences. It is bound to be close, and the United v Leicester game on the final day will literally have millions of pounds riding on it. At this point, it could still go any way.