Could Manchester City’s Champions League exile save the Premier League
On the 14th of February, it was announced that Manchester City would be banned from European competition for two seasons and fined 25 million pounds. This was for allegedly breaking financial fair play rules. There have been many debates on whether this decision is correct, or if it will even be carried out. However, apart from talk of players leaving, there has not been much discussion as to what effect this could have on Manchester City in the Premier League.
Currently in the Premier League Pep Guardiola’s Man City sit in 2nd place, an astonishing 25 points behind the champions elect, Liverpool. Many would think that this gap would be near impossible to bridge in just one season. Nevertheless, if the burden of European football were to be lifted from Man City it may help enormously in catching the Merseyside club.
Over the past 5 seasons, there have been two occasions where the team who have lifted the title didn’t play European football: Leicester (2014-15) and Chelsea (2015-16). Many would agree that these two clubs did not have the best squads, or even management. But both were able to lift the trophy with at least a 6-point gap.
With only one game a week the team will have more time to prepare and focus on league fixtures, as well as remaining fresh. This has often been evident in the past, when playing against rivals who are involved in European football. An example of this in Chelsea’s title winning season was when they travelled to the Etihad; a game often remembered for Kevin De Bruyne’s extraordinary open goal miss. Man City were dominant and outplayed Chelsea for 60 minutes and were leading 1-0, but somehow Chelsea were able to walk away with a 1-3 victory. It was perceived to be a smash and grab. However, there was less focus on the fact that Chelsea were the fresher side and so less fatigued. So, despite being outplayed, in the latter part of the game they ran City ragged. If Manchester City do not have European football, they may well experience this same benefit, and achieve results that have eluded them this season and so once again regain top spot.
Since the news of Manchester City’s ban hit the headlines there has been plenty of gossip about players’ futures. Many fans have fantasised about the prospect of snatching De Bruyne or Sterling. But most of the marquee players have already publicly committed their futures to the club. It is more likely that squad players such as Leroy Sané and Ilkay Gundogan will depart. But this could be to City’s advantage . Over the past few seasons Manchester’s premier club has rotated its first team from game by game. This not only gives squad players game time, but also relieves players from the demanding two games per week schedule. However, it can lead to players performing inconsistently as they are not settled in their roles. With only a game per week, Guardiola will be able to keep a more settled 11 which will allow his players to flourish even further. This was indeed the case with Leicester and Chelsea who fielded a consistent 11, week in week out. Athough both of these sides may not have had the most talented groups of players, consistency meant that each individual was able to master their roles within the team
An issue that has faced Man City, both this season and in the previous season, has been injuries. In particular, to key players like De Bruyne and Laporte, who have been long term absentees. This has hindered City. Players such as Fernandinho have had to cover unfamiliar positions. With less games comes less of a toll on players’ bodies. Man City will be able to field more of their star players in the same 11 without the same level of injury risk, improving their chances of gaining points that were previously dropped. And so the gap with Liverpool might be bridged.
If Manchester City’s impending champions league exile transpires, it will surely only strengthen them in the premier league. With a more settled 11, allowing for more consistent performances and results, they will stem Liverpool’s dominance, and so treat us to a title race in the 2020-21 season, whenever that may commence.